Red Sox’s No. 1 prospect?

The debate for the Red Sox’s No. 1 prospect entering 2024 is a compelling one between shortstop Marcelo Mayer and center fielder Roman Anthony. The comparisons echo the 2016 scenario when Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, and Rafael Devers were in contention for the top prospect title. Devers eventually emerged as a two-time All-Star, outshining his counterparts.

Mayer and Anthony are both highly regarded, with Baseball America placing Mayer at No. 1 and Anthony at No. 2 in their Red Sox Top 10 prospect list. In contrast, SoxProspects.com ranks Anthony at No. 1 and Mayer at No. 2. The dilemma persists in Baseball America’s Top 100, where Mayer holds the 15th spot, and Anthony is close behind at No. 19.

Anthony’s impressive 2023 season, earning him the Red Sox’s minor league Offensive Player of the Year, saw him rise to Double-A at just 19 years old. His ability to control the strike zone, coupled with his remarkable performance against older competition, garnered attention.

Mayer’s 2023 journey included a shoulder injury that sidelined him in August, impacting his Double-A stint with Portland. While his first half showcased a .337 batting average and elite on-base and slugging percentages, the second half saw a noticeable increase in his strikeout rate. This prompts the need for Mayer to refine his approach and reduce swing-and-miss tendencies.

SoxProspects.com’s decision to elevate Anthony over Mayer emphasizes Anthony’s progression, particularly his defensive prowess in center field. Mayer’s setbacks due to injury might be a concern, but his potential as a shortstop with a well-rounded game cannot be overlooked.

On the other hand, Baseball America leans towards Mayer, emphasizing his standout amateur career and the likelihood of reaching the big leagues as a shortstop. Mayer’s powerful hitting, natural loft, and room for power development contribute to the case for his top billing.

The difficulty in evaluating talent is evident, with both prospects exhibiting strengths and weaknesses. The Red Sox’s reluctance to trade their top three prospects—Mayer, Anthony, and Kyle Teel—underlines the importance of a strong understanding of their system. Ultimately, the decision between Mayer and Anthony adds another layer to the ongoing prospect debate.