Unwrap the Cubsmas Magic!

This marks the conclusion of the Cubsmas Advent Calendar. For a comprehensive understanding of the project and insights into Day One, please refer to the provided explanation.

In recent developments, the Dodgers secured the services of pitching prodigy Yoshinobu Yamamoto, finalizing a substantial 12-year contract valued at $325 million. When combined with the notable Shohei Ohtani deal and Tyler Glasnow’s contract extension, the Dodgers have committed well over $1 billion to free agents in the ongoing offseason. Meanwhile, the Cubs are yet to unveil their strategic moves, leaving fans in anticipation. As a Cubs enthusiast observing the Dodgers’ substantial investments from a distance, the promises of astute spending by Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins evoke a sense of skepticism, akin to childhood experiences when adults claimed frozen yogurt was an equivalent substitute for ice cream.

Rather than dwelling on the prospect of veggie chips instead of potato chips dominating Wrigleyville in the foreseeable future, this final day of Cubsmas Advent delves into a closer examination of one of the Cubs’ judicious spending decisions. Almost two years ago, the Cubs secured the talents of Japanese star Seiya Suzuki. His entry into MLB was marked by notable achievements, including an NL Player of the Week award and an NL Rookie of the Month accolade. Suzuki’s impressive performance in April, boasting a .279/.405/.529 slash line, solid defense, and a 0.9 bWAR, garnered him recognition.

However, Suzuki’s journey in the league experienced fluctuations, influenced by adjustments made by opponents and injury challenges. The analysis includes a 15-game rolling wOBA chart from FanGraphs, illustrating Suzuki’s overall production. While he hasn’t returned to the initial peak, the most recent games showcase a different peak, indicating potential adjustments in his approach. If these adjustments prove sustainable, the Cubs may have a burgeoning Japanese star in right field, offering a cost-effective alternative to the high-profile signings of Ohtani and Yamamoto.

Examining the rolling wOBA chart alongside Suzuki’s strikeout rate reveals a significant improvement during a recent spike. His strikeout rate notably dropped from 26.5% in July to 16.5% in August, suggesting a positive trend. This lower strikeout rate, if sustained, could mark a substantial advancement for Suzuki. The analysis delves into Suzuki’s performance against specific pitch types, highlighting improvements, particularly against sliders.

Seiya Suzuki results by pitch type

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Suzuki’s refined approach against sliders in the 2023 season, with an improved slugging percentage and reduced strikeout rate, signifies progress. While there are areas for further improvement, the overall trend is positive. Steamer projections for Suzuki’s upcoming season cautiously forecast a .264/.346/.459 slash line with a wRC+ of 118, aligning with his previous MLB seasons. However, the author envisions a potential breakout in 2024, resembling Suzuki’s stellar second half of the 2023 season, marked by a .313/.372/.566 slash line, a wRC+ of 149, and improved plate discipline.

Dreaming of a Suzuki breakout in the upcoming season reflects optimism for a player with three more years left in his Cubs contract at a cost of $17 million per season. The article underscores the concept of intelligent spending, emphasizing the potential upside in performance for a player like Suzuki.